May 18, 2020
Cnal.com comprehensive market analysis on the morning of May 18: on the previous trading day, the average price of non-ferrous aluminum in the Yangtze River rose 220 to 13020, and the average price of non-ferrous aluminum in the South China Sea rose 210 to 13310. Shanghai aluminum spot monthly contract opened at 13185 in 2005, with a maximum of 13185 and a minimum of 12890, closing at 13015, up 65 or 0.50%. Lunlv 3 opened 1476.00, the highest 1485.00, the lowest 1460.00, and closed 1460.00, down 16.00 or 1.08%. The U.S. dollar index opened 100.29, its highest 100.49, its lowest 100.06, and closed 100.35, up 0.07 or 0.07%. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 225 tons to 1346775 tons. In the previous period, the warehouse receipts decreased by 8291 tons to 221136 tons.
1. In April, the selling price of new commercial housing in four first tier cities rose 0.2% month on month, the same increase as last month. Among them, Beijing fell 0.3%, Shanghai rose 0.6%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were flat. Second hand residential sales prices rose 1.1% month on month, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen rose 1.1%, 1.2% and 1.7% respectively, while Guangzhou was flat. The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in 31 second tier cities rose 0.5% and 0.4% on a month on month basis, respectively, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month.
2. According to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, asset purchases can be increased as needed. US GDP in the second quarter could easily shrink by 20% - 30%. I and members of the FOMC still believe that negative interest rates may not be a suitable or useful policy for the United States. The forecast for the peak unemployment rate of 20% - 25% is generally appropriate.
Today's aluminum price analysis:
Industrial products in domestic futures market rose to varying degrees in opening, while Shanghai aluminum continued to rise in recent months. Today's aluminum price shocks strong, for reference only.